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Prediction for CME (2020-07-19T09:36:00-CME-001)CME Observed Time: 2020-07-19T09:36ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/15665/-1 CME Shock Arrival Time: 2020-07-24T00:18Z Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME: ---- Predicted Arrival Time: 2020-07-24T12:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) Confidence that the CME will arrive: 30.0% Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0 Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Prediction Method Note: Met Office ENLIL settings. ENLIL version: 2.7 Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform) Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1 WSA version: 2.2 Please specify following CME input parameters. Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2020-07-19T22:00Z Radial velocity (km/s): 300 km/s Longitude (deg): 6E Latitude (deg): 10N Half-angular width (deg): 24 deg Notes: There appear to be two CMEs from the weekend (18-19 July) in imagery, the first from the SW quadrant and likely missing Earth, the second one shows clearly on Stereo A coronagraph, and with a weak asymmetrical halo on SOHO C2 slightly towards NE. Modelled in Enlil to arrive around 24/0000 UTC, but background solar wind speed is probably too high in the model, which suggests a slower transit speed and arrival time more likely around midday on 24th. Space weather advisor: MOSWOC AMSLead Time: 83.63 hour(s) Difference: -11.70 hour(s) Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2020-07-20T12:40Z |
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