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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2020-07-19T09:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2020-07-19T09:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/15665/-1
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2020-07-24T00:18Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2020-07-24T12:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 30.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 2.2

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2020-07-19T22:00Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 300 km/s
Longitude (deg): 6E
Latitude (deg): 10N
Half-angular width (deg): 24 deg 

Notes: There appear to be two CMEs from the weekend (18-19 July) in imagery, the first from the SW quadrant and likely missing Earth, the second one shows clearly on Stereo A coronagraph, and with a weak asymmetrical halo on SOHO C2 slightly towards NE. Modelled in Enlil to arrive around 24/0000 UTC, but background solar wind speed is probably too high in the model, which suggests a slower transit speed and arrival time more likely around midday on 24th. 
Space weather advisor: MOSWOC AMS

Lead Time: 83.63 hour(s)
Difference: -11.70 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2020-07-20T12:40Z

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